And so we reach the final five in the fifth tier of English football, the Blue Square Bet Premier. Or Conference, to you and me. With many ex-league clubs in the mix, plus several well-funded and well-known non-league names, the league is increasingly moving further away from the amateur ethos into a leaner, more professional outfit, albeit one that still retains the warmth and friendliness, largely, of grassroots football.
The Conference is, as ever, an intriguing league and one of the toughest to get promoted from, as Luton have found out to their cost for the past two seasons. Meanwhile, Crawley’s tactic of blowing every other club out of the water financially resulted in the title, but it’s too early to say if this is sustainable or prudent for other teams to try and replicate.
And amidst the big money, there are still a few part-time teams attempting to survive. Bath City may have finished mid-table last season, but four part-timers all fell through the trapdoor and similar clubs will be looking nervously over their shoulders this season.
With that in mind, our five fans attempting to predict the league are as follows: Dan Cornwell (Cambridge United), John Bourne (Forest Green Rovers), TFT pod regular Ben Shaw (Luton Town), and Ebbsfleet United’s programme editor Ian Dickety. Twofootedtackle co-editor Gary Andrews, who watches more Conference football than any other league, also chips in with his opinion.
Who’ll win the league?
Dan: I think it’s wide open this year. All I know is that Luton will not win the title. I’ll go for Fleetwood as, if last year’s anything to go by, chuck a bit of cash at it at this level and it tends to work. Vieira and Brodie up front should bag them a few goals. The team to beat for me. I genuinely fancy Cambridge to be there or thereabouts in the mix at the end of the season, and also York to have a good year. So, Fleetwood winners, and Cambridge to go up.
John: I’ll go for Luton to take the title this year. They have been knocking on the door now for the last two years and I think they will be capable of winning it.
Ben: Champions - I’ve got to say Luton haven’t I? I would have though Lincoln will go straight back up as well.
Ian: It’s a difficult question - as are they all - as I was an outsider looking in last season as an Ebbsfleet United supporter. However, I’ll follow the general trend that has taken place over the last 5 or 6 years and back a traditional “non-league” team who no one ever expects to do it and gain the only automatic promotion spot, that team being Fleetwood Town.
We saw last season they’re a strong team and have some particularly influential players which they’ve supplemented with some high profile, high pedigree signings in the summer. In a way they’re similar to Crawley Town where they have money and they’re not afraid to spend it, but it’s good to see the money is being spent in building the club’s infrastructure too, and it’s clear they’re very different to the Red Devils in the respect they’re taking their time to do it.
Gary: Surely Luton can’t blow it for a third successive season, can they? The Hatters are older and wiser and know what it takes this season and Gary Brabin knows the Conference inside out. That said, it wouldn’t be a huge surprise to see big-spending Fleetwood make it another season of pain in Bedfordshire.
Who’ll make the playoffs?
Dan: York, Cambridge, Luton, Darlington.
John: It’s so difficult to predict who’ll make the playoff places in the BSP. There are always a number of clubs around the 70 point mark who could steal a spot in the last few weeks. Stockport are a strong side with a great fan base and I’m sure they’ll be very determined to get back into the football league at the first opportunity, so I’m going to go with them to finish second.
I think that Grimsby have a great chance of going up. They had some big wins last year but really struggled to be consistent. If Rob Scott can the team playing at their best every week then I think they’ll definitely make the play offs. Fleetwood and York both had good seasons last year and they’ll feel ready to be up there at the end of the year, so I’ll go for those two as well.
Ben: Four out of Lincoln, Darlington, Stockport, York, Fleetwood.
Ian: I think we’ll see the playoffs mostly made up of ex-league clubs - you can bet your bottom dollar a fair few are really going to go for it this season. We’ve seen it before with Cambridge, Mansfield, Wrexham, Oxford and others, with only the latter of that list having success. I think the order will go Luton, Lincoln, Grimbsy with the final spot going to Newport who will have a late surge towards the end of the season. I’ve left out Stockport as I think they’ll suffer from “We’re-too-big-for-this-tinpot-league syndrome” and have an awful start to the season a la Luton a couple of season’s ago.
Gary: It could be too tight to call - there are a lot of ex-league sides plus a couple of others all capable of making the top five. Fleetwood should easily take one place, while I really like the look of the side Gary Mills is assembling at York and they could even be dark horses for the title. Darlington should build on their FA Trophy victory from last season and Cambridge have quietly assembled an impressive side and, baring injuries, could take the final spot.
Which sides will get relegated?
Dan: Southport, Braintree, Forest Green, and Alfreton. That said, if Wrexham don’t start the season and Alty get a reprieve then they’ll finally go.
John: Again, this is always a tough one to predict. Being a Forest Green fan I know how much of a close call this can be every year! Fingers crossed we won’t be involved this time, I think we have a significantly better structure and squad than we had this time last season. I hope that Wrexham can sort out their problems off the pitch, otherwise there will always be a concern about them, although their team at the moment is good enough for this league.
I think Southport will struggle and find themselves in the bottom four. Their away form was very poor last season and they were obviously very lucky to stay in the league. I’m not too sure how well Braintree and Hayes & Yeading will get on this year, I can’t see them getting above mid table and it’ll be easy for them to get dragged in to the battle if they don’t have a good start to the season, so I think I’ll go for them as well.
My last choice will be Tamworth. They’ve been up and down over the last few years and I’ve never been all that impressed when I’ve seen them play against FGR.
Ben: At the moment it looks like Wrexham won’t be around by Christmas. Southport really should have been down last season and Forest Green were one of the worst sides I’ve ever seen play - I’m surprised they managed to stay up. Expect one other club to be relegated/points deducted due to financial irregularities - the Conference is slowly becoming dodgier than Jamie Redknapp’s adverts.
Ian: In this league nowadays there’s no way you’d ever expect a full-time team to go down with the full-to-part-time ratio that now exists, though having said that there are ‘full-time’ clubs running on what are practically part-time budgets. Obviously as with the last few seasons you’d expect at least one or maybe two of the relegation spots to be filled by clubs in financial difficulties come the end of the season, and it looks like we may already have one of them in Wrexham.
However, I think they’ve got too much backing in various forms to go completely belly up and although I reckon they’ll get some kind of points deduction, I think they’ll overcome this to finish mid-table. Bottom four I’d go for Southport, Hayes & Yeading, Braintree and Tamworth, though I really couldn’t put them in any kind of order. Forest Green will squirm out it somehow as usual.
Gary: Hayes & Yeading did fantastically to avoid the drop last season but with a small budget, losing manager Garry Haylock to Farnborough, and playing “home” games at Woking is a bad combination and they’ll be playing in the Blue Square South next season.
Braintree will have a lot of fun at this level but they’re not strong enough to survive, while Southport may have to rely on another reprieve. The last position is difficult to call, although Tamworth are as good a bet as any to fill it.
This is all obviously caveated by the fact that Wrexham are in dire financial straights and may not finish the season. I’d expect them to muddle through - just - though.
Are there any sides you think could be a surprise package?
Dan: Gateshead have had a good pre-season, but it’s AFC Telford and Newport County I’d look out for. Andy Sinton’s done a great job at AFC and they’re a tough two beat at home. Newport, mainly as they have to great ex-U’s in Danny Potter and Wayne Hatswell, both of whom I’d welcome back to The Abbey in a heartbeat.
John: I’m going to be hugely positive here and say Forest Green. Chairman Dale Vince has really shown commitment to the club and I think Dave Hockaday has brought in a decent mix of experience and youth. I’m not sure if this counts as much of a surprise, but I’ll mention Grimsby again. I think they’ll pull off some big wins this year.
Ben: There is little difference between the bottom half of the Conference and Conference North/South, so I expect Alfreton to start the season strong and finish just outside the playoffs.
Ian: As much as I think the Fleet hold quite a few tricks up their sleeve (I’m quietly confident we can match Bath’s record last season), I think fellow newly promoted AFC Telford are going to shock quite a few people, hovering in and around the play-offs for the majority of the season. They’ve had their fair share of trauma in Shropshire but I think before too long they could follow in the footsteps of Aldershot and Wimbledon and back into the league.
Gary: As mentioned, I think Cambridge may fly under the radar a bit and that will be good for them. I’ve been very impressed with the players Jez George has coaxed to The Abbey. Forest Green may also surprise a few people, now that they’ve finally got some proper investment behind them. I certainly don’t see them struggling like the last few seasons.
Which players in the division shout we look out for?
Dan: I think Brodie’s due a decent season after sitting in Crawley’s reserves last year. At Cambridge, Murtagh, Charles, and the new boy from Ebbsfleet, Carew could be interesting signings. Adam Proudlock (still only 30?) should be good at this level for AFC Telford. Also, I think if he stays fit and if he starts the season I think Danny Wright will be Cambridge’s one that got away…
John: Al Bangura is a great signing for FGR this year and hopefully will do well. It’s a shame he’s going to miss the start of the season. This might not happen at all, but it would be great to see Tommy Miller in the BSP if Gateshead do manage to snap him up. Another player I heard about from my time up north is ex-Newcastle player Patrick McLaughlin. I heard some pretty good things about him, so I’ll tip him to do well at York.
Ben: I’ve heard lots of good things about Greg Mills, though depends if he starts for Telford. If Luton’s start to the season doesn’t go well I’d expect Keith Keane and Matthew Barnes-Homer to be snapped up in January.
Ian: I’ll admit I’m a bit out of touch with opposition players at the moment - I’m a seasoned pro on Conference South ones though! Close to home Liam Enver-Marum has looked very good for us from what I’ve seen so far, and Jai Reason was impressive at Braintree last season and I think the step down last season has done him the World of good.
Ashikodi of Kettering has a natural eye for goal and if he can stay injury free he’ll be in contention for the Golden Boot, as will another ex-Fleet striker Magno Vieria at Fleetwood. Lastly, As my wildcard, I’ll back James Dance who’s just moved to Luton from Crawley to be one to watch this season.
Gary: I watched Bromley quite a few times last season and Harrison Dunk was clearly too good for the Conference South. I thought he’d head to a league club but Cambridge have a real gem by signing him up. Also, Magno Vieria had a fantastic season last season and he stands a good chance of competing for the Golden Boot. I fancy him to outscore team-mate Richard Brodie.
And, with that, we conclude Five Go Predicting. Judging by our Conference fans, it’ll be a shootout between Luton and Fleetwood for the title, while Braintree, Hayes & Yeading and Southport aren’t given much hope. How Forest Green Rovers will do is anybody’s guess.
You can follow Dan on Twitter @Moosola and Ben is at @BenShaw. Gary can be followed @gafootbl.
You can read the rest of Five Go Predicting at twofootedtackle: