TFT’s Suhail Seedat previews the first match of what has been billed as the World Series of Football. It all begins this evening, with Real Madrid entertain Barcelona at the Bernabeu, in what many commentators perceive to be the least significant compared to the other three matches, the Copa Del Rey on Wednesday and the two-legged Champions League semi final.
The reverse fixture was unforgettable. On a cold and wet Monday night in November, Barcelona brightened the Nou Camp by handing Real their most embarrassing Clasico defeat in recent memory. A 5-0 drubbing will be on the minds of José Mourinho’s men, who have constantly reiterated that the game is behind them and the only way is forward. What lies ahead, however, is perhaps the greatest team ever to have been developed in club football.
Tale of the tape
Real Madrid go into the game knowing they are eight points off the top, which in Spain means the title race is all but over. A win would reduce the gap to five but, with Mourinho’s main ambition being to win the Champions League, he may decide to keep his eggs in that basket rather than concentrating on the league. Real’s last home defeat was to Manuel Preciado’s Sporting Gijon a fortnight ago and a repeat performance would result in Barcelona walking away with the points and the psychological edge. Mourinho has a full squad available to him with Kaka, Gonzalo Higuain and Karim Benzema all returning from injury.
Barcelona know a win will not only knock the sails out of Los Blancos but also give them the momentum going into the Copa Del Rey final in the Mestalla on Wednesday night. The Catalans’ last defeat was in September against Hercules and they have managed to drop only six points (three draws) since, illustrating the task at hand for Real Madrid. Manager Pep Guardiola has been forced to make some defensive personnel changes with Javier Mascherano suspended and Eric Abidal out until next season. Carles Puyol will return shortly.
Probable teams
Real Madrid: Casillas, Ramos, Carvalho, Albiol, Marceloa; Pepe, Alonso, Khedira; Ronaldo, Di Maria; Benzema.
Barcelona: Valdes, Alves, Busquets, Pique, Adriano; Xavi, Iniesta, Keita; Pedro, Messi, Villa.
Counter attack
It was Mourinho’s ploy at the Nou Camp to play a very deep game, replicating the Inter Milan performance against Barca in last season’s Champions League semi-final. The idea was to stay narrow and ensure Barcelona don’t stretch them and break open the defence, but the high defensive line adopted in the reverse fixture - especially in the second half - was atrocious, gifting space for David Villa and Lionel Messi to wreak havoc.
As a result, it wouldn’t be shocking to see Real Madrid adopt the same strategy but, with Mourinho having had more time with the players since that 5-0 defeat, the players will have now fully understood the positions which Mourinho wants them to be in. Ricardo Carvalho, in this case, will be a useful player in the Real Madrid defence as he has worked with Mourinho twice before, making the move to the capital in the summer.
The decision to play Pepe as a defensive midfielder over the past couple of weeks suggests Mourinho is testing to see whether his fellow Portuguese can replicate his international positional play in domestic football. Pepe has shown great awareness in mopping up behind the midfield should it lose shape, and has the pace to cover positions vacated by the full backs. Against Barcelona, rarely will Ramos or Marcelo venture into the opposition half, such is Mourinho’s pragmatic and cautious nature in big games.
The in-form Benzema can play a pivotal role on the counter. Perhaps better than Higuain, but less so Emmanuel Adebayor, he can hold up the ball and operate in a false nine position, similar to Lionel Messi when receiving the ball, which can then release Cristiano Ronaldo and Angel Di Maria to push beyond him and expose the space left behind Barcelona’s consistently adventurous full backs.
Barcelona’s flexibility and discipline
Spectators for this game will want an early Barcelona goal to open up the game, as Real Madrid will not want to suffer another defeat at the hands of Guardiola; he’s claimed five consecutive victories against his bitter rivals. Barcelona will have to be tactically flexible throughout the game in trying to out-think Mourinho.
The best example of Guardiola’s tactical acumen was this fixture last season, when he changed personnel at half time after his team were stifled on the right side. With Dani Alves being marked closely playing in a right wing role, he was moved to his familiar right back position making it difficult for Real to trace his runs when ghosting past Pedro. This resulted in more space being made available for Pedro, space he used to score the second.
The Madrid press have been quick to note that Messi’s lack of goals against a Mourinho-managed side could be broken, having scored an amazing 47 (or 48 depending on which paper you read) goals this season. Barcelona depend a lot more on Messi than Real do on Ronaldo, as 55% of Barcelona’s goals come courtesy of the Argentine in comparison to 48% of Real’s goals from the former World Player of the Year. Also, Messi provides more assists than Ronaldo - 18 compared to seven.
Messi’s success this season has come from playing a false nine position, making it difficult for defences to pick his runs as they go deep into midfield territory. Christoph Metzelder noted that in Real’s 6-2 defeat two seasons ago that Messi was unplayable in this role because of Barcelona’s rotational play; as soon as someone picked up Messi, another player would appear 1 v 1 against a defender in a traditional centre forward position.
There have been some suggestions that Real may opt to adopt what Juande Ramos did in his first game in charge against Barcelona, which was to be overtly physical and halt the progression of Barcelona. In a bitty affair, Barcelona still managed to overcome their rivals but with Mourinho’s mind games over the past fortnight of his side having to play with ten men against Barcelona, it is something which may play in the referee’s mind come kick off.
In the first leg against Shakhtar Donetsk, Barcelona were forced to play a lot of square and backwards passes mainly because of Shakhtar pressing the midfield. With Real matching Barca 3 v 3 in midfield, it wouldn’t be surprising to see a similar approach adopted but, in order for Barca to reduce pattern sequences which are frustratingly impenetrable, the wide players will have to be released sooner to try and work inwards.
Following last week’s defeat to Sporting, the gloss has been taken slightly off the league game, as Mourinho mentioned in his post-match press conference that he has been to be “objective and pragmatic and realise that the gap from five to eight points makes it impossible to win the title.” This series of games, in terms of importance, builds up to what many neutrals hope to be a crescendo at the Nou Camp in 17 days time.
Tags: Barcelona, Real Madrid